Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Auger-Aliassime and Tabilo are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of Roland Garros on 1 June 2026, with the Canadian favoured at 66% implied probability. The match sits in the early stages of the clay-court Grand Slam, where surface-specific form and recent tournament results carry substantial weight in determining outcomes.

Auger-Aliassime holds a 2–1 head-to-head record against Tabilo, though their encounters span different surfaces and tournament contexts. The Canadian's baseline power typically translates well on clay, though his Grand Slam record remains mixed—he reached the US Open final in 2021 but has struggled to progress consistently at Roland Garros. Tabilo, ranked lower, has improved markedly on clay in recent seasons and reached the Monte Carlo Masters quarter-finals in 2024, suggesting he poses a credible threat despite the odds. Historical clay-court matchups between players of similar ranking gaps at Roland Garros show roughly 30–35% conversion rates for the underdog, which aligns with current market pricing.

Traders should monitor injury reports and practice-court form in the week preceding 1 June, as both players' fitness status could shift expectations materially. Weather conditions at Roland Garros—particularly court speed and humidity—will influence tactical approaches; slower clay favours baseline consistency over aggressive serving, which could narrow Auger-Aliassime's technical advantage. Any scheduling changes or surface adjustments announced by tournament organisers would warrant reassessment before the settlement window closes on 8 June.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.