Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Platform comparison

Market context

Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Wimbledon ATP Round of 16 today, with the crowd-implied probability favouring the Canadian at 60% YES for advancing. This 60% figure aligns closely with independent predictive models, such as Dimers' advanced tennis simulation which projects a 63% win chance for Auger-Aliassime, and Tennis.com's live projection of 64%[4][5]. Historical head-to-head data frames this probability as robust; Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 3-1 edge in their previous encounters, suggesting a consistent pattern of dominance that traders should expect to continue rather than view as an outlier[3].

Traders must monitor the official start time of 6:00 AM ET and any immediate withdrawal announcements before the first ball is struck, as markets resolve to a fair price if the match does not begin due to injury or walkover[7]. Auger-Aliassime's recent straight-set victory over Michael Zhang indicates strong current form, a catalyst that supports the prevailing probability[6]. Conversely, Davidovich Fokina's ability to win at least one set via tiebreak remains a key dependency that could shift the outcome, a specific scenario highlighted by recent betting tips[3]. No further news updates are required beyond the live match status, as the resolution depends entirely on the match result before the settlement window closes on 12 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.