National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

The market has shifted only modestly in the past day or two, but the live pricing still points to Jakub Mensik as the clearer favourite: broad bookmaker averages have Mensik around 1.44 and Atmane around 2.79, which implies roughly a 69%–71% chance for Mensik before margins, while the crowd-implied price sits lower at 34% YES for Atmane.[1][2][14] That gap suggests the market is leaning against an Atmane upset, but not treating it as impossible.

That is consistent with the wider framing for this match: preview models and tipping outlets have generally put Mensik ahead, with published win probabilities around 61.7% to 64% and repeated calls for a straight-sets or otherwise controlled Mensik win.[8][13] At the same time, the odds are not extreme enough to dismiss Atmane’s path, particularly in a best-of-three format where one tight set can quickly change the shape of the match.[1][8]

The key catalyst now is simply whether the match proceeds on schedule and with the expected line-up, because this market resolves to 50-50 if the contest is not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.[15] Traders should watch official draw and order-of-play updates, plus any late injury or withdrawal news from Montreal, as the scheduled start has already been posted by multiple tennis data and sportsbook feeds, but real-world ATP schedules can still move late in the day.[4][10][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.