Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper

Platform comparison

Market context

Terence Atmane and Jack Draper are on the board for Montreal’s hard-court opener, and the market’s **32% YES** implies Atmane is still the clear outsider despite the live listing showing Draper as a lower-ranked entrant in this draw. The key change over the last day is simply that the match is now close enough to the scheduled start that price should be driven more by confirmed order of play, fitness, and any late withdrawal risk than by broad tournament narratives.[1][2][15]

Historically, this sort of number is more consistent with a match where one player has the stronger recent hard-court profile but the other has enough upside to make the gap narrower than rankings alone suggest. There is no head-to-head record between Atmane and Draper, so traders have to lean on broader form rather than direct matchup history.[3][6] Draper’s career and hard-court win rates are materially stronger than Atmane’s in the comparison data, which is one reason a sub-50% price for the underdog is broadly plausible even before first serve.[6] Recent form snapshots also point the same way: one feed has Draper winning three of his last four, while Atmane has lost nine of his last eleven.[4][12]

The main catalysts to watch now are whether the match actually goes ahead on schedule, whether either player is listed as a late scratch, and whether the tournament’s order of play shifts because of weather or court scheduling. Current event pages place the match on outdoor hard court in Montreal, with different listings showing slightly different times, so small timing changes remain possible.[1][5][8][15] For this market, that matters because a cancellation, no-contest, or delay beyond seven days would settle to 50-50 rather than a win for either side.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.