2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open is now in its first two rounds at Shinnecock Hills, and the immediate market read is being driven by where players sit relative to the 36-hole cut rather than by pre-tournament pedigree.[4][6] The USGA and PGA Tour both state that the event uses a 36-hole cut to the low 60 scores and ties, with the week running June 15–21 at Southampton, New York.[4][6]

That structure matters because Shinnecock has a long record of firm, exacting U.S. Open setups, which tends to compress scoring and leave more names hovering near the cut line than at a standard PGA Tour event.[2][8] In practice, the market usually turns on whether a player can survive the second-round number; once the leaderboard settles around the projected cut, prices can move sharply even on small changes to the line.[1][6]

For traders, the key catalysts over the next 24 hours are the completion of round two, the official posting of the cut, and any weather interruption that shifts tee times or scoring conditions.[1][4] Sporting News reported the live cut line around 4-over par on Friday with 72 players above it, which is a useful reminder that the field can still tighten materially before the cut becomes official.[1] Any withdrawal, disqualification, or rules-based ineligibility before the cut is final would also force a No outcome under the market rules.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.