Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | 92% |
| Remco Evenepoel | 84% |
| Isaac del Toro | 55% |
| Jasper Philipsen | 48% |
| Nils Politt | 48% |
| Florian Vermeersch | 48% |
| Emiel Verstrynge | 48% |
| Søren Wærenskjold | 48% |
| Kasper Asgreen | 47% |
| Luke Durbridge | 47% |
| Nicolas Vinokurov | 47% |
| John Degenkolb | 46% |
| Jake Stewart | 46% |
| Baptiste Veistroffer | 46% |
| Aaron Gate | 40% |
| Rick Pluimers | 40% |
| Juan Ayuso | 28% |
| Jenthe Biermans | 24% |
| Paul Seixas | 16% |
| Matthew Riccitello | 10% |
| Romain Grégoire | 9% |
| Sepp Kuss | 9% |
| Richard Carapaz | 5% |
| Warren Barguil | 1% |
| George Bennett | 1% |
| Mathis Le Berre | 1% |
| Cees Bol | 1% |
| Pablo Castrillo | 1% |
| Joris Delbove | 1% |
| Pascal Eenkhoorn | 1% |
| Felix Engelhardt | 1% |
| Milan Fretin | 1% |
| Derek Gee-West | 1% |
| Maxim Van Gils | 1% |
| Dorian Godon | 1% |
| Thibault Guernalec | 1% |
| Ben Healy | 1% |
| Quinten Hermans | 1% |
| Jai Hindley | 1% |
| Marc Hirschi | 1% |
| Jordan Jegat | 1% |
| Alex Kirsch | 1% |
| Andreas Kron | 1% |
| Michał Kwiatkowski | 1% |
| Lenny Martinez | 1% |
| Joel Nicolau | 1% |
| Tom Pidcock | 1% |
| Davide Piganzoli | 1% |
| Edward Plackaert | 1% |
| Javier Romo | 1% |
| Clément Russo | 1% |
| Mauro Schmid | 1% |
| Mattias Skjelmose | 1% |
| Michael Storer | 1% |
| Mike Teunissen | 1% |
| Mathias Vacek | 1% |
| Kévin Vauquelin | 1% |
| Mattéo Vercher | 1% |
| Louis Vervaeke | 1% |
| Yannis Voisard | 1% |
| Jonas Abrahamsen | 0% |
| Pascal Ackermann | 0% |
| Edoardo Affini | 0% |
| Clément Braz Afonso | 0% |
| Julian Alaphilippe | 0% |
| Piet Allegaert | 0% |
| Alex Aranburu | 0% |
| Thymen Arensman | 0% |
| Bruno Armirail | 0% |
| Huub Artz | 0% |
| Tom Van Asbroeck | 0% |
| Lewis Askey | 0% |
| Xabier Mikel Azparren | 0% |
| Dylan van Baarle | 0% |
| Abel Balderstone | 0% |
| Davide Ballerini | 0% |
| Alex Baudin | 0% |
| Phil Bauhaus | 0% |
| Tiesj Benoot | 0% |
| Jenno Berckmoes | 0% |
| Julius van den Berg | 0% |
| Egan Bernal | 0% |
| Clément Berthet | 0% |
| Sebastian Berwick | 0% |
| Frits Biesterbos | 0% |
| Pavel Bittner | 0% |
| Nicolas Breuillard | 0% |
| Frank van den Broek | 0% |
| Victor Campenaerts | 0% |
| Damiano Caruso | 0% |
| Mattia Cattaneo | 0% |
| Alveiro Cepeda | 0% |
| Anthon Charmig | 0% |
| Magnus Cort | 0% |
| Ewen Costiou | 0% |
| Lars Craps | 0% |
| Ramses Debruyne | 0% |
| Alexandre Delettre | 0% |
| Nico Denz | 0% |
| Robbe Dhondt | 0% |
| Tim van Dijke | 0% |
| Silvan Dillier | 0% |
| Lennert Van Eetvelt | 0% |
| Tobias Foss | 0% |
| Marco Frigo | 0% |
| Filippo Ganna | 0% |
| Fernando Gaviria | 0% |
| Lorenzo Germani | 0% |
| Biniam Girmay | 0% |
| Kamil Gradek | 0% |
| Felix Großschartner | 0% |
| Per Strand Hagenes | 0% |
| Marco Haller | 0% |
| Chris Harper | 0% |
| Michel Hessmann | 0% |
| Sergio Higuita | 0% |
| Daan Hoole | 0% |
| Damien Howson | 0% |
| Ion Izagirre | 0% |
| Tobias Halland Johannessen | 0% |
| Matteo Jorgenson | 0% |
| Max Kanter | 0% |
| Arvid de Kleijn | 0% |
| Olav Kooij | 0% |
| Bert Van Lerberghe | 0% |
| Arnaud De Lie | 0% |
| Florian Lipowitz | 0% |
| Matîs Louvel | 0% |
| Tim Marsman | 0% |
| Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet | 0% |
| Michael Matthews | 0% |
| Brandon McNulty | 0% |
| Vlad Van Mechelen | 0% |
| Tim Merlier | 0% |
| Xandro Meurisse | 0% |
| Brent Van Moer | 0% |
| Matej Mohorič | 0% |
| Alex Molenaar | 0% |
| Niklas Märkl | 0% |
| Krists Neilands | 0% |
| Kelland O'Brien | 0% |
| Ben O'Connor | 0% |
| Stefano Oldani | 0% |
| Nelson Oliveira | 0% |
| Jakub Otruba | 0% |
| Quentin Pacher | 0% |
| Hugo Page | 0% |
| Valentin Paret-Peintre | 0% |
| Aurélien Paret-Peintre | 0% |
| José Félix Parra | 0% |
| Mads Pedersen | 0% |
| Raúl García Pierna | 0% |
| Luke Plapp | 0% |
| Mathieu van der Poel | 0% |
| Nicolas Prodhomme | 0% |
| Sean Quinn | 0% |
| Jonas Rickaert | 0% |
| Einer Rubio | 0% |
| Quinn Simmons | 0% |
| Anders Skaarseth | 0% |
| Toms Skujiņš | 0% |
| Liam Slock | 0% |
| Robert Stannard | 0% |
| Georg Steinhauser | 0% |
| Jasper Stuyven | 0% |
| Josh Tarling | 0% |
| Harold Tejada | 0% |
| Benjamin Thomas | 0% |
| Antonio Tiberi | 0% |
| Jan Tratnik | 0% |
| Matteo Trentin | 0% |
| Torstein Træen | 0% |
| Anthony Turgis | 0% |
| Cian Uijtdebroeks | 0% |
| Michael Valgren | 0% |
| Simone Velasco | 0% |
| Carlos Verona | 0% |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 0% |
| Max Walker | 0% |
| Tim Wellens | 0% |
| Ilan Van Wilder | 0% |
| Fred Wright | 0% |
| Adam Yates | 0% |
| Georg Zimmermann | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, tour de france 2026: top 3 stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed cyclist finishes in the top 3 of the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becom…
Methodology
We track Tour De France 2026: Top 3 across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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