Uzbekistan vs. Colombia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Uzbekistan will face Colombia in a World Cup group-stage match on 17 June 2026, with the current market pricing Uzbekistan's victory at just 10 per cent. This reflects Colombia's substantial advantage: they qualified directly for the tournament as CONMEBOL's third-ranked side, whilst Uzbekistan earned their spot through the AFC pathway as a lower-seeded qualifier. The 10 per cent probability suggests the market views an Uzbekistan win as a genuine upset scenario rather than a competitive matchup.

Historical precedent supports this assessment. Colombia have appeared in four of the last five World Cups and reached the quarter-finals in 2014, establishing themselves as a consistent South American force. Uzbekistan qualified for their first World Cup since 1994 and have never advanced beyond the group stage. In direct continental comparisons, CONMEBOL representatives have historically dominated AFC qualifiers at tournament level, though upsets do occur—particularly when fatigue or tactical mismatches favour the underdog.

Traders should monitor team news through mid-June, particularly injury updates for Colombia's key attacking players and any late squad adjustments. Uzbekistan's preparation schedule and whether they face stronger opposition in their preceding warm-up fixtures could shift perceptions of their competitive readiness. Fixture congestion in the days before 17 June may also influence team selection, especially if either side has already secured or been eliminated from knockout qualification before this match concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.