Senegal vs. Iraq

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Senegal and Iraq kicks off at 19:00 UTC today in Toronto, with the crowd-implied probability of a Senegal win sitting at 80%. This is not a background note; it is a today’s outlook on what shifted in the last 48 hours. The most critical development is the ruling out of Senegal’s first-choice goalkeeper, Edouard Mendy, just before the final fixture[3]. While this injury introduces volatility, market odds remain heavily skewed toward Senegal, suggesting traders view the backup as capable or the defensive unit as robust enough to absorb the blow[3].

Historically, when a top-tier African nation faces a lower-ranked Asian side in the World Cup with a 80% implied win probability, the outcome has rarely deviated unless a key defensive player is absent in the opening 20 minutes. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show that even with goalkeeper injuries, teams like Nigeria and Ghana maintained their dominance against weaker opponents, provided the midfield controlled the tempo[4]. The current 80% probability aligns with these precedents, indicating that the market expects Senegal to live up to their potential despite Mendy’s absence[4].

Traders should monitor the pre-match line-ups for confirmation of the replacement goalkeeper and any tactical adjustments by Senegal’s head coach Pape Thiaw[9]. Additionally, watch for Iraq’s head coach Graham Arnold’s press comments regarding defensive strategy, as his approach could determine if the under-2.5 goals total holds[7]. The over/under 2.5 goals line is set at -181 for the over, suggesting a potential high-scoring affair if Senegal’s defence is compromised[1]. Any late news on Mendy’s status or the backup’s readiness will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts before the whistle[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.