Jordan vs. Argentina - Exact Score

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group J clash between Jordan and Argentina kicks off tonight at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with the 11% crowd-implied probability on an exact score reflecting a stark mismatch in form. Over the last 48 hours, Jordan’s defensive fragility has been highlighted by their recent 2-1 loss to Algeria and 3-1 defeat to Austria, where late goals from Amine Gouiri proved fatal, while Argentina has maintained a perfect five-match winning streak with 15 goals scored and none conceded. This surge in Argentina’s dominance and Jordan’s four losses in their last five games has tightened the market, pushing the probability for any specific exact score lower as the likelihood of a heavy Argentine victory increases.

Historically, debutant World Cup teams like Jordan, who qualified for the first time in 2026 after a 3-0 victory over Oman, often struggle against elite opponents with perfect defensive records, similar to how other first-time qualifiers conceded heavily in early group stages. Comparable cases show that teams with a goal difference of -6 across five matches, as Jordan holds, rarely secure exact scores against sides with a +15 goal difference, making the 11% probability on a specific outcome a reflection of the high variance in such a mismatch rather than a realistic expectation of a narrow result.

Traders should monitor Lionel Scaloni’s pre-match comments for Argentina, as his team’s top-spot qualification depends on a win or draw, potentially driving a more aggressive approach that could alter the exact score dynamics. Recent coverage from Goal.com notes that Jordan’s transition errors have been critical, suggesting that any early turnover could lead to a rapid Argentine goal, while the over/under 2.5 goals market set at -178 for the over indicates expectations of a higher-scoring affair. With the settlement window ending at 02:00 UTC on June 28, the focus remains on whether Argentina’s perfect defence holds or if Jordan’s late-game vulnerabilities lead to a multi-goal margin.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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