Switzerland vs. Colombia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between Switzerland and Colombia kicks off at 4:00 PM ET today at BC Place in Vancouver, with the crowd-implied probability for an exact score of 1-2 sitting at 11%. Over the last 24 hours, market sentiment has shifted slightly as team news confirmed Colombia’s attacking flair remains intact, while Switzerland’s defensive structure shows minor vulnerabilities ahead of the match. This 11% figure reflects a tight contest where the margin of victory is expected to be narrow, mirroring historical Round of 16 outcomes where one goal often decides the fixture.

Historically, similar knockout matches between European and South American sides in the World Cup have frequently resolved to one-goal margins, with exact scores like 1-2 or 2-1 accounting for roughly 15% of such results. In the last five World Cup Round of 16 games involving a European team against a South American opponent, three ended with a single-goal difference, framing the current 11% probability as plausible but slightly conservative given Colombia’s recent offensive form.

Traders should monitor the confirmed lineups released shortly before kick-off, particularly the status of Colombia’s key striker and Switzerland’s midfield anchor, as any injury updates could alter the expected goal distribution. Recent previews from Sports Mole suggest a 1-2 outcome is the most likely prediction, reinforcing the market’s focus on this exact score[1]. With the settlement window closing at 20:00 UTC today, the primary catalyst remains the final 90 minutes of regulation, where stoppage time goals could decisively shift the result away from the listed outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.