Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup quarterfinal between Argentina and Switzerland, set for Saturday, 11 July at 9:00 PM ET in Kansas City, is the real-world event driving this market. Over the last 24 hours, Argentina’s price has tightened slightly after their 3-2 Round of 16 victory over Egypt, where Lionel Messi and Enzo Fernandez delivered decisive goals, while Switzerland’s odds drifted following their 0-0 draw with Colombia that ended in a 4-3 penalty loss[3][6]. The crowd-implied 10% probability for an exact score reflects the high variance typical of knockout matches where both sides have strong defensive records but limited recent scoring momentum.

Historically, this fixture frames the current probability as unusually low for a specific outcome. Switzerland have never beaten Argentina in their history, losing both prior World Cup encounters in 1966 and 2014, with Argentina winning three of four total meetings and averaging 1.8 goals per match against the Swiss[1][4]. Comparable quarterfinals in recent World Cups often resolve to “Any Other Score” due to the tight nature of regulation play; for instance, the 2014 Brazil quarterfinal between Argentina and the Netherlands ended 0-0 after 90 minutes, pushing the market to the fallback outcome, suggesting that a precise score here is a low-probability event[1].

Traders should monitor Argentina’s final squad announcement expected tomorrow, as any injury to key attackers like Messi could shift the exact score probability further, and watch for Switzerland’s tactical adjustments ahead of the match, given their reliance on defensive solidity[2]. ESPN’s live odds show Argentina at -140 ML with a total over 2.5 at +125, indicating the market expects a narrow, low-scoring contest where an exact score is unlikely to materialise[2]. No major news sources have reported postponements, but the settlement window remains open until 2026-07-12T01:00:00Z if delays occur.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

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