Mexico vs. Ghana

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico face Ghana in a FIFA International Friendly on 22 May 2026, with the match settling the following day. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that this fixture will occur as scheduled, though the market's settlement window extends into 23 May to account for potential fixture delays or rescheduling announcements that could arrive in the final 48 hours before kick-off.

International friendlies scheduled more than a year in advance rarely face cancellation, but precedent matters here. The 2022 World Cup cycle saw several friendlies postponed due to squad availability disputes and confederation scheduling conflicts, particularly involving African nations managing overlapping tournament qualifiers. Mexico's participation in CONCACAF competitions and Ghana's African Cup of Nations commitments create potential friction points, though both federations typically honour pre-announced friendlies unless domestic league calendars force last-minute changes. The current probability sits at the ceiling partly because May 2026 falls outside major tournament windows, reducing scheduling pressure.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Mexican Football Federation and Ghana Football Association through mid-May, particularly any squad rotation decisions or injury updates affecting key players that might prompt fixture postponement. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 7–10 days before international breaks. Recent reporting from ESPN and Sky Sports on CONCACAF's 2026 calendar shows no competing obligations flagged for either nation during this window, though federation statements remain the authoritative source for any last-minute changes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.