Japan vs. Iceland - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Japan and Iceland are scheduled to meet in an international friendly on 31 May at 6:25 AM ET, with the match likely to serve as preparation for upcoming competitive fixtures. The 0% probability assigned to "more markets" suggests traders currently expect no additional betting markets to be offered beyond those already live. Over the past 48 hours, no material shifts in fixture status or broadcaster commitments have emerged that would alter this baseline expectation.

Historical precedent shows that FIFA friendlies between lower-profile opponents—particularly those scheduled outside major tournament windows—rarely generate expanded market coverage on prediction platforms. When additional markets do materialise for such matches, they typically follow confirmation of significant broadcast deals or late-stage sponsorship announcements. Iceland's limited fixture calendar and Japan's tendency to schedule friendlies with minimal promotional lead time both point toward minimal market expansion activity.

The critical catalyst will be any formal announcement from the fixture organisers or participating federations regarding broadcast partnerships or commercial arrangements. Traders should monitor official channels from the Japan Football Association and the Icelandic Football Association through the settlement window, as well as any statements from major streaming platforms or regional broadcasters. Fixture postponements or venue changes—unlikely but possible given the early morning ET kickoff—could theoretically prompt additional market creation, though current scheduling shows no reported complications.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.