Germany vs. Finland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany and Finland are scheduled to contest a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026, with the match settlement occurring at 18:45 UTC that day. The fixture forms part of the pre-tournament preparation window ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America, where both nations will be competing. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that this match will take place as scheduled, barring extraordinary circumstances.

Historically, friendly matches between established European sides rarely cancel outright once confirmed by national federations. Germany and Finland have met competitively and in friendlies since the 1980s, with Germany holding a decisive record. The fixture's placement in late May aligns with UEFA's standard international window protocols, making postponement unlikely unless a major geopolitical event or pandemic-level disruption occurs. Previous World Cup preparation friendlies have proceeded as scheduled in the months preceding tournaments, even when squad availability or injury concerns mounted.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the German Football Association (DFB) and Finnish Football Association (SPL) regarding squad confirmations and any venue changes, though these typically occur well before the settlement window. Weather conditions in late May across potential host venues present minimal disruption risk. The primary catalyst would be any unforeseen security concerns or force majeure declarations from UEFA, which remain exceptionally rare for scheduled friendlies. Confirmation of the match location and kickoff time should arrive through official channels by mid-May 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.