Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| England (-1.5) | 74% England | 27% New Zealand |
| New Zealand (-1.5) | 1% New Zealand | 99% England |
| England (-2.5) | 33% England | 67% New Zealand |
| New Zealand (-2.5) | 1% New Zealand | 99% England |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| O/U 1.5 | 69% Over | 32% Under |
Market context
England face New Zealand in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June at 4:00 PM ET, with the market currently pricing a 73% probability that additional markets will be offered beyond the standard match outcome and goal-line bets. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC the same day, giving traders roughly sixteen hours after kick-off to assess whether the fixture generated sufficient trading volume to justify expanded market offerings.
Friendly internationals between established federations typically do trigger supplementary markets—corners, cards, player performance props—when broadcasters and betting operators anticipate significant audience engagement. England's recent friendlies against Brazil and Belgium both saw extended market suites, though lower-profile fixtures against smaller nations sometimes settle with minimal additional offerings. New Zealand's status as a Tier 1 opponent elevates the likelihood of fuller coverage, though the June window sits outside major tournament cycles when casual interest dips measurably.
The key variable remains operator discretion in the hours immediately following the match. Broadcasters' audience metrics and real-time betting activity will determine whether supplementary markets justify operational costs. Recent regulatory changes in several jurisdictions have tightened requirements for market approval timelines, potentially constraining the window for new offerings. Traders should monitor early trading volumes and any pre-match announcements from major sportsbooks regarding their market plans; such statements, typically issued 24–48 hours before kick-off, provide the clearest signal of institutional appetite for expanded coverage.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $352K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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