CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar

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Active sub-markets

Market context

CD Castellón will host SD Eibar in a La Liga 2 fixture on 31 May 2026, with the match settlement tied to the final whistle result. The current market probability of 100% YES indicates traders are pricing certainty into the event's occurrence, though the underlying match outcome remains unresolved. No material fixture changes have been reported in the past 48 hours; the match remains scheduled for its advertised date and venue.

La Liga 2 fixtures at this stage of the season typically proceed as scheduled unless extraordinary circumstances intervene—weather disruptions, administrative sanctions, or security concerns are rare enough that historical precedent suggests cancellation probability sits well below 1%. Castellón and Eibar are both established clubs with stable operational status; neither faces the kind of institutional collapse or regulatory suspension that would prevent participation. The May timing places the match near season's end, when fixture congestion is resolved and pitch conditions are generally favourable across Spanish grounds.

Traders monitoring this market should track any official La Liga or RFEF announcements regarding fixture postponement, though such notices typically emerge only days before scheduled play. Injury bulletins for either squad's key personnel won't affect whether the match occurs, only its competitive character. Weather forecasts for the Castellón region in late May warrant routine attention, though May precipitation rarely triggers postponements in Spanish football. The settlement window closes shortly after the scheduled kick-off time, leaving minimal window for late-stage fixture changes to influence resolution.

Methodology

We track CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.