Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 75% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 32% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 5% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Xtreme Gaming and Team Falcons face off in a best-of-two Group A clash at the Esports World Cup 2026 in Paris, starting at 09:00 UTC today. The market for “more markets” on this series currently sits at 0% YES, reflecting a near-total absence of liquidity or trader interest in secondary betting propositions beyond the standard match winner.
Historically, best-of-two Dota 2 series at major tournaments like the Esports World Cup rarely generate active secondary markets unless a clear narrative emerges, such as a roster dispute or a dramatic mid-series format change. In comparable Group Stage fixtures from DreamLeague and previous Esports World Cups, “more markets” liquidity has consistently remained negligible when the primary outcome is perceived as straightforward or when the event is live and settling quickly. The 0% probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders view the series as a binary outcome with no anticipated complexity warranting additional contract types.
Traders should monitor the live match feed for any unexpected format deviations, such as a sudden extension to best-of-three due to tiebreaker rules, or official announcements regarding roster substitutions mid-tournament. The Esports World Cup 2026 schedule confirms this is Match #13 in Group A, with no indicated dependencies on other Group A results that would alter the series structure [2][3]. Any deviation from the stated best-of-two format or a late announcement of a tiebreaker rule would be the primary catalyst for secondary market activation, though current tournament documentation shows no such provisions in place.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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