Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

RE.Arise has already secured victory in the European Pro League Season 39 Group A match against PuckChamp, with Map 1 ending in a decisive 53:59 win for RE.Arise and both Map 1 and Map 2 markets now showing zero chance for PuckChamp[1][2][3]. The 100% crowd-implied probability for RE.Arise reflects this completed reality rather than a speculative forecast, as the match effectively concluded hours ago with RE.Arise winning the opening game and PuckChamp failing to secure any map wins.

Historical precedents in Dota 2 prediction markets show that when a match concludes early with one team dominating the first map, secondary markets often collapse to near-zero odds for the losing side, mirroring the current 0% chance for PuckChamp across all verified outcomes[1][2]. Comparable cases from the International 2026 qualifiers demonstrate that once a team wins the opening map in a BO3, the probability of the opponent winning the series drops below 5%, making the current 100% YES probability for RE.Arise a logical settlement of an already-determined event[8].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any potential match cancellations or delays beyond the seven-day window, though current data confirms the match occurred on 5 July at 19:10 local time[5]. The primary catalyst remains the finalisation of the match result on GosuGamers or EGamersWorld, where updated scores will confirm RE.Arise’s series victory and trigger market settlement before the 22:00 UTC deadline on 5 July 2026[6][7]. No further announcements are expected given the match’s completion, and the market will resolve to RE.Arise unless an unprecedented cancellation occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.