Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% Power Rangers | 50% TEAM VISION |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 90% Over | 10% Under |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% Power Rangers | 10% TEAM VISION |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% Power Rangers | 100% TEAM VISION |
Market context
Power Rangers and TEAM VISION are set for their Upper Bracket quarterfinal clash at The International Europe Closed Qualifier today, with the match originally scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. While the crowd-implied probability sits at a neutral 50% for Power Rangers, live data from Kalshi shows TEAM VISION has already taken a 1-0 lead in the ongoing match, with their win probability surging to 96% just hours ago[1]. This rapid shift from a balanced market to a heavily favoured outcome for TEAM VISION highlights the volatility inherent in live esports betting, where a single game result can instantly reprice the entire contest.
Historically, qualifier matches in the TI Europe region have seen breakout teams like TEAM VISION, often described as the EU's next breakout squad, dominate established names once they secure an early advantage[8]. Comparable cases from previous TI qualifiers show that teams winning the first game in a BO3 often close out the match with over 90% probability, mirroring the current 96% live pricing for TEAM VISION[1]. Traders should note that a 50% initial price in such contexts frequently reflects pre-match uncertainty rather than true equipoise, as the team winning the opening game typically carries a decisive momentum edge.
Key catalysts to watch include the official confirmation of the match result and any potential delays beyond the seven-day settlement window, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution[1]. The match is live now, so the primary dependency is the declaration of a winner, with resolution expected within one hour of the event's conclusion[3]. Traders should monitor the live score updates on DLTV or GosuGamers for real-time confirmation of the final outcome, as the market will close immediately once a winner is declared[1][4]. Any delay beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner would reset the market to an even split, though current live data suggests a swift resolution is imminent[1].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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