Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ and Yellow Submarine are already playing, and the live listings show Yellow Submarine leading the series 1-0 after the first map, which sharply changes the near-term outlook from the market’s earlier 0% YES pricing on MOUZ. The match is being tracked as part of The International 2026 Europe Regional Qualifier playoffs, with the start time listed at 08:00 UTC.[1][2]

The main frame for reading this market is recent head-to-head form: Yellow Submarine beat MOUZ 2-1 in May 2026 and also have a 2025 series win in the matchup, while MOUZ’s latest listed win over Yellow Submarine was a 2-0 in October 2025.[1][7] That record suggests the pairing has not been one-sided, even if pre-match models and bookmakers leaned towards MOUZ, with CyberScore describing MOUZ as favourites at around 1.65.[4]

For traders, the immediate catalyst is whether the current map advantage converts into a completed series before the settlement window closes. The key watchpoint is official match progression on the live scoreboard, since a completed MOUZ reverse sweep would be required for the market to resolve YES on MOUZ, whereas any Yellow Submarine series win settles the other side.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.