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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Ends in Daytime 100% Both Teams Beat Roshan 100% Any Player Ultra Kill 100% Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $1.8M Liquidity: $87K Closes: 26 Sept 2026
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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Ends in Daytime100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan100%
Any Player Ultra Kill100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?100%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)77%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Any Player Ultra Kill29%
Any Player Rampage26%
O/U 2.5 Games12%
Game 2 Winner11%
Match Winner6%
Game 1 Winner0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%
Any Player Rampage0%
First Blood in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to dota 2: lgd gaming vs team yandex (bo3) - pgl wallachia playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Final match between LGD Gaming and Team Yandex in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will…

Methodology

We track Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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