Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Aurora face Team Falcons in a DreamLeague Group A best-of-three match scheduled for 13 May at 1:00 PM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity on this particular fixture. DreamLeague remains one of Dota 2's premier seasonal competitions, with Group A matches carrying weight for playoff seeding, making both teams likely to field full rosters and play the match as scheduled.

Historical context for DreamLeague fixtures shows cancellations or forfeits are rare at this tier of competition. Team roster stability and travel logistics for DreamLeague events are typically confirmed weeks in advance. The seven-day grace period before 50-50 resolution provides substantial buffer for rescheduling should unforeseen circumstances arise, which has historically been sufficient for most professional Dota 2 matches to complete.

Traders should monitor DreamLeague's official schedule and both teams' social media for any roster changes, visa issues, or health concerns affecting key players in the 48 hours before match time. Recent DreamLeague seasons have proceeded without significant disruptions to Group stage matches. The settlement window closing 13 May at 23:00 UTC gives approximately 22 hours post-scheduled start time for match completion and result confirmation, standard for the circuit.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2ember. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.