ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan

Platform comparison

Market context

India face Afghanistan in a one-day international scheduled for 13 June 2026, with the market currently pricing India as near-certain favourites at 100% implied probability. The match forms part of a bilateral ODI series between the two nations, with resolution dependent on the official result published by ESPNcricinfo, including any outcomes determined by Super Over or other on-field tiebreak mechanisms.

India's dominance in ODI cricket against Afghanistan provides substantial historical grounding for the current pricing. In their previous encounters, India has won decisively across multiple formats, reflecting the gap in playing experience, squad depth, and tournament infrastructure between the two sides. Afghanistan's emergence as a competitive Test nation has not yet translated into consistent ODI success against top-ranked opponents, though they have produced isolated victories against established teams in recent years. The 100% probability reflects not merely India's ranking advantage but the accumulated evidence of their matchup record.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad composition and player availability in the weeks preceding 13 June, particularly any injuries to India's core batting or bowling unit that might narrow the performance differential. Afghanistan's recent form in bilateral ODI series and any personnel changes could shift expectations incrementally, though historical patterns suggest limited downside risk to the India outcome. Weather conditions at the venue on match day and any last-minute ground or scheduling changes would represent the primary operational variables affecting settlement timing rather than the underlying result probability.

Methodology

We track ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.