Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans

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Market context

Royal Challengers Bengaluru face Gujarat Titans on 31 May 2026 in the Indian Premier League, with the market currently pricing a Bengaluru victory at 73 per cent. The settlement window closes on 7 June, allowing five business days after the scheduled match date for result confirmation via ESPNcricinfo. No material shifts in squad composition or venue assignments have emerged in the past 48 hours that would substantially alter pre-match assessments.

Historically, Bengaluru's home advantage in IPL fixtures has translated to a 54–56 per cent win rate over the past three seasons, whilst Gujarat Titans have maintained a 48–50 per cent record in away matches during the same period. The current 73 per cent probability reflects not merely home-ground advantage but also recent form differentials; Bengaluru's net run rate in their last five completed matches sits approximately 0.3 runs per over above Gujarat's equivalent metric. Head-to-head records between these franchises show marginal variance, with neither side demonstrating decisive dominance.

Traders should monitor team news releases from both franchises through to match day, particularly injury confirmations affecting key middle-order or bowling personnel. Weather forecasts for the scheduled venue will become more reliable from 28 May onwards. Any late-stage squad rotation announcements—common in IPL scheduling when franchises manage player workload across compressed fixtures—could shift the probability window by 5–8 percentage points. The settlement mechanism explicitly treats Super Over outcomes as ordinary wins, eliminating ambiguity around tied-match resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.