Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) | 89% |
| O/U 5.5 | 86% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 70% |
| Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) | 68% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shandong Taishan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Shandong Taishan and Yunnan Yukun face off this morning in Jinan for a pivotal Chinese Super League clash, with the market heavily favouring a specific outcome at 89% YES. The underlying real-world event is the match scheduled for 7:35 AM ET, where recent form suggests a high-scoring affair, as Shandong has seen over 2.5 goals in seven of their last eight games, while Yunnan has hit that mark in three of their last four[2]. This high probability aligns with a distinct historical pattern: in their previous three meetings, Shandong Taishan has failed to win, with Yunnan securing two victories and one draw, often scoring prolifically with eight goals to Shandong’s three across those fixtures[5][6]. Notably, Yunnan staged a dramatic 3-2 comeback against Shandong in May 2025, overturning a 2-0 deficit to win the 11th round of the 2025 season, reinforcing the trend of Yunnan’s resilience and offensive capability against this opponent[3][7].
Traders should monitor the final confirmed lineups and any pre-match injury announcements, as player availability could drastically shift the goal-scoring dynamics given both teams’ recent attacking output. The match takes place at the Jinan Olympic Sports Center, where Shandong’s home form averages 1.67 goals per game, slightly lower than their overall 2.25 average, suggesting a potential defensive tightening that might be countered by Yunnan’s aggressive style[6]. A key catalyst to watch is the official team news release, typically issued one hour before kick-off, which will confirm if key strikers are fit; recent reports indicate Yunnan’s forward line remains intact following their strong 2025 performance[1]. With the settlement window closing at 11:35 UTC, the market’s current stance reflects confidence in Yunnan’s ability to exploit Shandong’s defensive vulnerabilities, a trend consistently observed in their head-to-head history[4].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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