Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger and Yunnan Yukun are due to meet at TEDA Football Stadium, and the market has sat at **0% YES**, which implies the exchange is treating the “more markets” package as effectively unresolved rather than leaning towards a specific add-on outcome. The last 24–48 hours have not produced a fresh team-sheet shock or a major scheduling change in the results available here, so the live read is still being driven mainly by the fixture itself and how tightly it is priced around the kick-off window.[2][6]
Recent comparable meetings point to a match that can swing between controlled and open. Yunnan beat Tianjin 2-0 in October 2025, but Tianjin won 3-0 away in April 2026, showing that this pairing has already produced both a clean, low-event result and a comfortable multi-goal away win.[3][18] Broader preview sources around the same fixture also leaned towards goals or both-teams-to-score angles, which is useful context for reading whether secondary markets might attract interest once line-ups land.[8][9][13]
For traders, the main catalysts are the usual late pre-match dependencies: confirmed starting XIs, any change to the listed 11:00 UTC start, and whether either side rotates after recent league travel. Tianjin and Yunnan both have recent match pages and pre-match market listings live, but no late-breaking injury or suspension bulletin is evident in the material here, so the key watchpoint is whether pre-kickoff team news changes the pricing on goal-related or result-linked add-on markets.[1][2][10][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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