Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 88% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 88% |
| Spread -7.5 | 87% |
| Spread -5.5 | 85% |
| Spread -9.5 | 84% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 84% |
| Spread -3.5 | 83% |
| Spread -2.5 | 81% |
| Spread -6.5 | 81% |
| Spread -10.5 | 81% |
| Spread -11.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 77% |
| O/U 24.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| O/U 26.5 | 75% |
| Penn State O/U 27.5 | 75% |
| Spread -13.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 73% |
| Spread -8.5 | 72% |
| Spread -14.5 | 72% |
| O/U 30.5 | 72% |
| O/U 32.5 | 71% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| Spread -16.5 | 69% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 69% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| Spread -17.5 | 64% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 63% |
| Spread -12.5 | 61% |
| O/U 42.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 60% |
| Spread -20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 55% |
| Spread -15.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| Spread -23.5 | 46% |
| Spread -24.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 40% |
| Spread -26.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -27.5 | 35% |
| Wisconsin O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 54.5 | 34% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| O/U 52.5 | 27% |
| Spread -30.5 | 26% |
| Wisconsin O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Wisconsin O/U 23.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| Spread -4.5 | 4% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -3.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wisconsin vs. Penn State. In the upcoming college football game between Wisconsin and Penn State, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Wisconsin" if Wisconsin win the game. This market will res…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $351K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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