Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| Spread -0.5 | 82% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| UConn O/U 23.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| Spread -3.5 | 75% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| UConn O/U 26.5 | 75% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| UConn O/U 29.5 | 64% |
| Spread -7.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 62% |
| O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| UConn 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -9.5 | 58% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| UConn 1H O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| O/U 51.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| UConn 1H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| UConn O/U 32.5 | 52% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| UConn O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| UMass O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UConn 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UConn Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UConn Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. UConn: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UMass O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| UMass O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| UMass O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 45% |
| UMass O/U 32.5 | 44% |
| Spread -15.5 | 44% |
| Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| O/U 55.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| O/U 57.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 39% |
| UConn O/U 35.5 | 39% |
| Spread -18.5 | 36% |
| Spread -19.5 | 35% |
| UMass O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Spread -20.5 | 32% |
| O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| O/U 61.5 | 27% |
| Spread -22.5 | 27% |
| Spread -24.5 | 24% |
| 1H Moneyline | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| O/U 65.5 | 20% |
| Spread -27.5 | 19% |
| UMass vs. UConn | 18% |
| Spread -0.5 | 18% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -30.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 12% |
| Spread -28.5 | 11% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -34.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| O/U 73.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
Market context
The UMass vs. UConn prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. In the upcoming college football game between UMass and UConn, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game. This market will resolve to "UConn" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $109K.
Methodology
We track UMass vs. UConn across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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