SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Recife and Botafogo-SP played out their Brasileirão Série B clash at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho on Friday, 10 July 2026, with the match now concluded and the outcome settled. The prediction market in question, which offered a YES position on Botafogo winning, has resolved to NO, reflecting the final result where Botafogo failed to secure victory within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time[1][5].

A 0% crowd-implied probability for a Botafogo win aligns with historical patterns where lower-ranked Série B sides struggle against established home teams in mid-season fixtures, particularly when away form is inconsistent. In comparable Matchday 17 encounters over the past three seasons, home favourites in Recife have won roughly 62% of games against visiting São Paulo clubs, making a Botafogo victory a statistically remote event before kick-off[8].

Traders should note that this market resolves strictly on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, which is standard for league matches[5]. No further catalysts exist post-settlement, as the game has already taken place and the result is confirmed; any pre-match announcements on lineups or injuries, which were last updated 24 hours prior to the fixture, no longer influence the outcome[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews SC Recife vs. Botafogo FC across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.