Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Coritiba and Bahia are set to face off in Brazil's top division on Monday, 25 May 2026, with the match settlement window closing that same evening. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that the fixture will proceed as scheduled, though this extreme confidence warrants scrutiny given the volatility typical of Brazilian football calendars and the compressed timeline between now and the settlement deadline.

Historical precedent suggests that Série A matches scheduled for late May rarely face cancellation absent extraordinary circumstances—weather disruptions, administrative sanctions, or security concerns would be the primary vectors for non-occurrence. Both clubs have competing interests in fixture completion at this stage of the season, as May typically falls within the critical final stretch of the domestic campaign. The fixture's settlement window closing at 23:00 UTC on the match day itself leaves minimal buffer for rescheduling announcements, meaning any disruption would need to emerge within hours of kickoff to affect the market outcome.

Traders should monitor official CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) communications and club statements through 24 May for any squad availability crises, pitch condition reports, or administrative developments. Recent fixture congestion in Brazilian football—with Copa do Brasil and state championships overlapping with Série A—occasionally triggers postponements, though such decisions typically surface 48–72 hours in advance. The settlement window's tight closure means late-breaking news carries outsized impact; any announcement after 21:00 UTC on 25 May would effectively lock current odds regardless of match status.

Methodology

We track Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.