Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

The CBA semi-final between Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks is scheduled again for today, with the series already producing back-to-back Shanghai wins after Beijing took the first game. Shanghai won 99-88 and then 81-66, so the latest 48 hours have shifted the read towards the Sharks rather than the Ducks. The market’s 0% YES pricing is extreme, but it reflects that most recent results, not a neutral matchup.

The head-to-head line is straightforward: the last five meetings show Shanghai ahead 3-2, including the two most recent semi-final wins. Beijing did beat Shanghai 87-82 on 15 May, and the earlier regular-season games were split, so this is not a one-sided season-long gap. The sharper recent comparable is form in elimination play, where the team controlling pace and defensive rebounds has tended to carry the night; Shanghai’s ability to hold Beijing to 66 points in the last game is the clearest reference point.

For traders, the key catalyst is simple: whether the scheduled tip-off goes ahead on time and whether either side is carrying any late roster or rotation changes from the previous semi-final games. Live score services and the most recent match listings on Sofascore, Flashscore and Livescores all still point to a May 22 fixture, while recent coverage on YouTube of Game 3 highlights Shanghai’s 11-point quarter-to-quarter advantage after a strong start by Beijing. If there is any delay or rescheduling, the market stays open until the game is played; only a cancellation without a make-up would push it to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.