Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs David Jorda Sanchis

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrej Nedic and David Jorda Sanchis are scheduled to meet in Istanbul on 23 May 2026 in what appears to be a lower-tier professional tennis fixture. The 0% implied probability suggests minimal trading activity or confidence in either player's likelihood of advancing, typical for matches involving players outside the ATP top 100. Settlement occurs by 30 May, allowing a seven-day window for completion before the market defaults to 50-50.

Nedic, a Serbian player, and Jorda Sanchis, a Spanish competitor, operate in the Challenger and ITF circuit ecosystem where match outcomes carry higher variance than mainstream ATP events. Historical precedent shows that markets pricing either player at absolute zero often reflect either extremely thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about whether the match will occur at all—cancellations, withdrawals, and scheduling conflicts are more common at this level than in Grand Slam or Masters 1000 tournaments. The settlement terms explicitly account for this risk: any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Traders should monitor Istanbul tournament draws and player entry lists through late May, as confirmations typically arrive one to two weeks before the event. Weather disruptions in Istanbul during late spring occasionally compress schedules or force rescheduling. Any withdrawal announcement from either player would immediately shift the market, as would confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled. The current zero probability likely reflects absence of recent confirmation rather than a genuine assessment of either player's competitive standing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.