National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Mejia and Martin Landaluce were due to meet in Montreal, but the market still leans towards **Landaluce** on the back of the clearer ranking profile and stronger hard-court résumé. Landaluce is listed around ATP No. 63, versus Mejia near No. 131, and the pair have no previous head-to-head meetings to anchor a direct read. [3][10]

That 18% YES price for Mejia implies the board is treating him as the underdog, which fits the broader record split. Flashscore noted Mejia was making his first-ever Masters main-draw appearance and had yet to win a main-draw match at tour-level hard-court events, while Landaluce had a 14-11 record against players outside the top 100 this season and a 4-4 career mark in Masters first-round matches. Comparable filters also point the same way: tennisstats shows Landaluce ahead in 2026 hard-court win rate, while Mejia’s hard-court results have been less convincing overall. [2][1]

For traders, the key watchpoint is whether the match is actually completed before the settlement deadline, because a cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond seven days would push the market to 50-50 under the rules. The most relevant live catalyst is the tournament schedule itself, alongside any draw reshuffle, walkover, retirement, or official postponement notice from the National Bank Open or ATP feeds. If the match starts, in-play momentum matters far less than the binary question of whether an official winner is recorded within the window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.