Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu

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Market context

Jan Choinski has already beaten Yibing Wu in Eastbourne qualifying, with the ATP live stats archive showing Choinski winning 7-6(5), 6-4.[6] That means the market’s 100% crowd-implied “YES” price is aligned with the reported on-court result, rather than an open pre-match view.[2][6]

For context, this is the sort of Challenger/ATP qualifying matchup where the main risk is not a dramatic ranking upset but event logistics: qualifying rounds can be delayed, rescheduled, or, if a match never begins, settled under market rules rather than on the headline fixture alone.[4] Where live sources agree on a completed scoreline, the probability should generally converge hard towards the winner already identified by the official tour data.[1][6]

What traders should watch now is confirmation that the ATP record remains final and unamended, plus any late tournament housekeeping around qualifying scheduling or walkover handling.[4][6] LiveScore and Sofascore both listed the encounter as a live match on 20 June, while the ATP archive now records Choinski as the winner, which reduces residual uncertainty unless an official correction appears.[7][8][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.