Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 84% |
| Viktor Hovland | 12% |
| Wyndham Clark | 4% |
| Collin Morikawa | 3% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Sam Burns | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Tom Hoge | 0% |
| Benjamin James | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% |
| Shane Lowry | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Alexander Noren | 0% |
| Tony Finau | 0% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Andrew Novak | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 0% |
| Daniel Berger | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Lucas Glover | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Denny McCarthy | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 0% |
| Justin Rose | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
Market context
PGA Tour: Travelers Championship Winner — current market-implied probability: 84%. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Travelers Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Travelers Championship tournament…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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