PGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 RBC Canadian Open will take place in June at a venue yet to be confirmed by the PGA Tour, with the field typically comprising around 156 players competing across four rounds. The current 5% implied probability reflects the specificity of backing a single named player to win from a field where roughly 30-40 competitors enter with realistic winning chances; the market's resolution mechanics mean any unlisted player victory triggers an "Other" outcome, distributing probability across hundreds of potential winners.

Historical RBC Canadian Open results show significant variance in favourite performance. Between 2015 and 2024, the tournament winner averaged around 20-1 odds at the start of play, with only two favourites (Dustin Johnson in 2013 and Rory McIlroy in 2019) winning at single-digit odds. The 5% probability for a named player suggests modest pre-tournament positioning, typical for mid-tier PGA Tour events where depth of field limits concentration of winning chances among elite names.

Traders should monitor the PGA Tour's official 2026 schedule confirmation for the host venue, as course characteristics significantly influence which player profiles perform well—links-style layouts favour different skill sets than parkland courses. Injury reports and world ranking movements through spring 2026 will shape which listed players maintain form heading into June. The settlement window closing on 14 June means any weather delays or playoff resolutions must be finalised by that date under PGA Tour official rules.

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.