SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX attempted to launch Starship Flight 13 yesterday but aborted the mission at T-0 due to an automated flight computer hold, leaving the next attempt date undetermined [3][4]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a successful outcome reflects this immediate failure and the absence of a confirmed replacement slot, as teams must now diagnose the abort cause before proceeding [4].

Historically, Starship test flights have frequently encountered T-0 scrubs that delay schedules by days rather than weeks, with Flight 11 and Flight 8 both recovering quickly after similar automated holds [4]. Unlike earlier campaigns where structural failures or explosion events permanently altered flight trajectories, recent aborts have been procedural, suggesting the underlying vehicle remains viable for a near-term retry once the specific computer fault is resolved [2].

Traders should monitor the FAA’s closure of the May booster return failure review, which already cleared the path for this test, and watch for any new static fire announcements or booster rollback updates from Starbase [2][5]. The primary catalyst remains SpaceX’s official confirmation of a new launch window, as the current 90-minute window starting 22:45 UTC on July 16 is no longer active [1][6]. Any delay beyond the week of July 20 would significantly increase the risk of a prolonged hiatus, further depressing the probability of a successful flight in the immediate term [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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