United States vs. Paraguay - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States men's national team faces Paraguay in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 12 June 2026, with the match scheduled for 9:00 PM ET. The 23% implied probability for additional markets being offered reflects uncertainty about whether the governing bodies will expand betting options beyond standard match outcomes. This depends partly on regulatory decisions in the host nation and the commercial arrangements between FIFA and betting operators closer to the tournament date.

Historical precedent suggests World Cup matches typically attract expanded market coverage as the tournament approaches. The 2022 Qatar World Cup saw progressive market proliferation in the weeks before matches, with operators adding niche betting options once fixture details solidified and broadcaster schedules locked in. Paraguay's status as a lower-ranked opponent (currently 79th in FIFA rankings versus the US at 16th) may influence whether bookmakers judge additional markets commercially viable, though the US's profile as a host nation in 2026 could drive broader coverage regardless of opponent strength.

Traders should monitor FIFA's official betting framework announcements and any regulatory guidance from the host nation regarding permitted market types. The settlement window closing on 13 June—roughly 36 hours after kickoff—suggests the market references secondary betting options that would resolve based on post-match developments or specific statistical thresholds. Confirmation of which operators hold exclusive or preferred partnerships for the 2026 tournament will materially affect whether additional markets materialise, with major announcements typically arriving 6–12 months before the competition.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.