Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup match between Senegal and Iraq kicks off at 3 p.m. ET today in Toronto, marking the decisive Group I finale for both nations chasing their first wins of the tournament. Over the last 24 hours, market sentiment has shifted slightly as Iraq coach Graham Arnold publicly declared his squad’s intent to make history against the African side, injecting a narrative of underdog resilience that has tempered earlier expectations of a Senegal rout[9]. This announcement, coupled with fresh training footage showing Iraq’s defensive focus, has contributed to the current crowd-implied probability of 4% for an exact score outcome, suggesting traders are weighing the possibility of a tighter contest than the 4–1 prediction favoured by some analysts[1].

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group-stage matches involving teams with disparate FIFA rankings—Senegal at 15 and Iraq at 57—often resolve to “Any Other Score” due to the volatility of regulation-time outcomes[5]. Comparable cases from recent tournaments show that when a lower-ranked team faces a top-tier opponent in a must-win scenario, the probability of a precise scoreline rarely exceeds 5–6%, as defensive adjustments and late-game chaos frequently alter the final tally[2]. The current 4% figure aligns with this pattern, reflecting the statistical likelihood that Senegal’s attacking intent, led by Sadio Mané’s set-piece dominance, will be partially neutralised by Iraq’s disciplined structure[4].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up confirmations, particularly whether Senegal fields Mané and Nicolas Jackson, as their presence significantly increases the chance of a high-scoring game[4]. Additionally, watch for any weather updates in Toronto, as rain could slow the pitch and reduce goal frequency, and track real-time odds movements on the total goals market, which currently sits at 3.5[3]. The referee, Anthony Taylor, is known for allowing physical play, which may benefit Iraq’s defensive approach but could also lead to early penalties if Senegal’s pressure intensifies[1]. These dependencies will be critical in the final hours before the settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.