Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz continues to process roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily, though recent weeks have seen transit volumes fluctuate around the 50–55 daily-call threshold rather than the 60+ level required for market resolution. The 7-day moving average metric tracks all commercial vessel arrivals—tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and general cargo—as recorded by IMF Portwatch. Current crowd pricing at 77% YES reflects confidence that normal traffic patterns will resume within the next two years, though the baseline remains below the settlement trigger.

Historical precedent suggests the Strait recovers transit capacity relatively quickly after disruption events. During the 2022 Houthi campaign against shipping, daily calls dipped to the 30–40 range for weeks before rebounding to 65+ within months as insurers adjusted premiums and routing protocols stabilised. The 60-call threshold sits between crisis-level lows and pre-disruption highs, making it a moderate recovery target rather than a full normalisation benchmark. Traders should note that even modest regional de-escalation tends to restore transit volumes faster than geopolitical headlines suggest.

Watch for announcements from the US Central Command regarding naval presence adjustments, statements from Iran on nuclear negotiations, and any new attacks on commercial vessels in the region. Shipping insurance premiums and Suez Canal transit data offer real-time proxies for merchant confidence in the Hormuz route. The IMF Portwatch dataset publishes weekly, creating discrete resolution opportunities rather than continuous price discovery.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.