How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key change in the last 24–48 hours is that the week has still not produced a confirmed USGS magnitude 6.5+ event, even though the global seismic picture has remained active at lower levels. The British Geological Survey’s live world list, updated late on 9 August UTC, showed recent significant quakes topping out at 6.8 in Kyushu, Japan on 28 July, while a separate daily summary reported no magnitude 6 or higher quakes in the 24 hours to 9 August. [4][6]

That leaves the current **95% YES** pricing anchored in a market with a low bar, but one that usually depends on whether a single larger shock is eventually promoted into the catalogue. In 2026, the year has already produced multiple notable 6.5+ events, including 6.9 off Honshu, 7.2 in Venezuela, 6.8 in Kyushu and 6.5 offshore Mindanao, showing that this threshold is not rare in a global sense. [3][4][5][13] Comparable markets on a seven-day window often move sharply on one late revision, because the difference between “none” and “one” can hinge on a single entry being added, upgraded or reclassified in the official feed. [7][9]

Traders should watch the USGS search pages and event query feed for late additions, especially for earthquakes first reported below 6.5 that are later revised upward after more waveform data are processed. [7][9] The main dependency is catalogue timing rather than a scheduled announcement: the market resolves on the USGS count for the exact date window, so any substantial quake in the period may only matter once it appears in the official search results. [9] Recent third-party trackers have continued to show ordinary mid-range global activity, with no clear sign of an immediate 6.5+ cluster, but those snapshots are secondary to USGS classification for settlement. [10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.