Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

No significant developments in the past 48 hours have altered the baseline assessment of Putin's continuity in office through end-2026. The Russian president maintains firm institutional control, with security apparatus and military command structures showing no visible fractures. The 9% probability reflects the market's assessment that removal through coup, health crisis, or forced resignation remains a low-probability tail event within the specified timeframe.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing sudden leadership transitions in Russia's contemporary system. The Soviet Union's final years saw multiple general secretaries removed through Politburo mechanisms, yet Putin's personalised power structure differs fundamentally—he has consolidated decision-making authority to a degree that reduces institutional checks. Gorbachev's removal in 1991 required coordinated action across multiple power centres; comparable scenarios today would require fractures across military, FSB, and oligarchic networks simultaneously. No comparable modern autocracy has experienced sudden presidential removal without either external military intervention or internal armed conflict.

Traders monitoring this market should track three categories of signals: health indicators (Putin's public appearances and scheduling patterns), military developments (particularly any signs of command instability following battlefield setbacks), and factional tensions within the security apparatus. The Ukraine conflict remains the primary variable affecting regime stability, though two years provides substantial buffer for adaptation. Announcements regarding constitutional changes, succession planning, or unexpected leadership reshuffles would warrant immediate reassessment. Current pricing reflects the embedded assumption that institutional continuity persists absent extraordinary circumstances.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.