NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The race tightened slightly in the last day or two, with Adriano Espaillat still ahead on prediction markets but Darializa Avila Chevalier keeping the contest live as the June 23 primary approaches. Polymarket has Espaillat around 63%, while City & State’s market snapshot shows a similar mid-60s lead, suggesting traders still see the incumbent as favoured but not secure.[1][4]

That pricing fits the usual pattern for an incumbent-facing primary in a district that has backed Espaillat strongly before: he was re-elected with 83.5% in 2024, and he enters this cycle with name recognition and an established organisational base.[2][6] At the same time, the presence of a visible challenger means the market is reading more than a formality; a mid-50s to low-60s implied chance is consistent with a race where the favourite has structural advantages, but turnout and late consolidation could still matter.[1][2]

The main catalyst now is the final stretch of campaign communication before polls open on 23 June, including any last-minute endorsements, turnout pushes, or local coverage that changes perception of strength.[3][8] NY1 hosted a Democratic primary debate for the district, underscoring that the contest is active and publicly contested rather than settled in advance.[3] Traders should also watch for any official Democratic announcements or candidate withdrawals, because the market resolves from the nominee ultimately identified by official Democratic sources, and if no nominee is confirmed by 3 November the outcome becomes “Other”.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.