Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The immediate update is that the reconciliation process has already cleared the committee stage and the Senate is still being pushed towards a final vote before the end of the month, but there is no sign yet of a finished chamber package. On 4 May, Senate committees released a first draft of a roughly $72 billion spending package, with CBO scoring the measure as deficit-expanding and leadership still signalling a target of 1 June for final passage, according to Ballotpedia and CBO. That leaves the market focused on whether the text can move through amendment, leadership negotiations and floor scheduling in the remaining days.

The historical read is mixed but skewed towards process risk rather than outright collapse. In late April, both chambers adopted the FY 2026 budget resolution, which unlocked reconciliation and set committee instructions; however, reconciliation only becomes real once the Senate actually passes a bill. Comparable budget measures often slip on timing even after procedural milestones are cleared, particularly when the package carries large immigration-enforcement funding and competing demands from House and Senate Republicans. A 0% implied probability suggests traders are treating the remaining calendar as too tight for a clean Senate floor passage by 31 May.

The next catalysts are straightforward: whether Senate leaders file a floor motion, whether the parliamentarian or internal GOP disputes force changes, and whether the House committees meet the 15 May text deadline in a way that keeps bicameral talks alive. Watch for any leadership statement on floor time, any revised committee print, and any sign that the White House’s stated preference for passage before 1 June is translating into an actual schedule. If no formal Senate floor movement appears within the next few sessions, the path to a vote narrows quickly.

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Methodology

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Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.