Will Hezbollah disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hezbollah faces intensifying military pressure following sustained Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Lebanon, yet the organisation has shown no indication of willingness to disarm. As of late 2024, the group remains committed to its armed resistance framework, with leadership statements consistently reaffirming its military posture despite significant casualties and infrastructure losses. The 0% probability reflects the historical reality that Hezbollah has never voluntarily relinquished its weapons since its founding in 1985, viewing its military capacity as central to its political legitimacy and regional deterrence strategy.

Comparable cases offer limited precedent for such a reversal. The Irish Republican Army's decommissioning in 2005 occurred after decades of political integration and a negotiated settlement framework; Hezbollah currently lacks equivalent political incentives or international agreement structures. Disarmament announcements from armed groups typically follow comprehensive peace settlements or political transitions—conditions absent in Lebanon's fractured governance environment. Hezbollah's military wing remains institutionally inseparable from its social services and political operations, making partial disarmament announcements unlikely without fundamental shifts in Lebanese state capacity or regional security architecture.

Traders should monitor statements from Naim Qassem or designated successors, though the settlement window's proximity to the March 2026 deadline leaves minimal time for such a reversal. Key dependencies include potential Lebanese government stabilisation, shifts in Iran's regional strategy, or ceasefire agreements that might create political space for disarmament discussions. Current trajectory suggests no material catalyst for an official announcement within the specified timeframe.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.