US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $93.8M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $44.7M
| Kevin Warsh | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Judy Shelton | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Christopher Waller | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jerome Powell | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Stephen Miran | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve ha
The Polymarket market "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is currently trading at 99% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 99%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 31 October 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly