Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | 100% |
| Family 5+ times | 100% |
| Joe / Biden 3+ times | 100% |
| Landslide | 100% |
| Friend of Mine | 100% |
| Big Beautiful Bill | 100% |
| Too Big to Rig | 100% |
| Save America Act | 100% |
| Communist / Communism | 100% |
| Stock Market | 100% |
| Fake News | 100% |
| Hottest | 100% |
| Tariff | 100% |
| Transgender | 100% |
| First Term | 100% |
| Venezuela | 100% |
| Fraud | 100% |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 100% |
| Buy Dell / Buy a Dell | 100% |
| Egg | 100% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 97% |
| Trump 5+ times | 91% |
| Melania | 0% |
| Booming | 0% |
| Ceasefire | 0% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 0% |
| Supreme Court | 0% |
| Six Seven | 0% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% |
| School Choice | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for What will Trump say during his remarks in Georgia?. Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks in Marietta, Georgia, on July 22, 2026. (https://x.com/LizHuston33/status/2077836333351940296?s=20). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump sa…
Methodology
We track What will Trump say during his remarks in Georgia? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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