US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain in a holding pattern, with no formal announcement of a ceasefire extension or new diplomatic framework materialising in the past 48 hours. The 73% implied probability reflects market confidence that some form of official commitment will be announced before the resolution deadline, though the specific mechanism—whether framed as an extension, new agreement, or broader diplomatic accord—remains undefined. Recent indirect talks through intermediaries have continued without public breakthrough, and both sides have maintained rhetorical positions rather than signalling imminent agreement.

Historical precedent suggests caution about reading high probabilities as certainty. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action took years of negotiation before announcement, whilst the 2020 Trump administration withdrawal occurred with minimal warning. More recently, the November 2022 prisoner exchange between the U.S. and Iran was announced suddenly after weeks of quiet diplomacy, indicating that formal declarations can materialise rapidly once frameworks are privately settled. The current market probability may reflect accumulated confidence from months of sustained diplomatic engagement rather than concrete signals of an imminent announcement.

Traders should monitor statements from the U.S. State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry for any indication of scheduled talks or diplomatic progress. The UN General Assembly sessions and any bilateral meetings involving intermediary nations like Oman or Qatar could serve as announcement platforms. Congressional activity regarding Iran sanctions or military posturing may also signal shifting administration priorities. Without scheduled diplomatic events or recent positive statements from either party, the 73% probability appears to price in a longer timeframe for resolution rather than an announcement within days.

Methodology

We track US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.