Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

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Market context

Trump's second administration has maintained elevated tariffs on Chinese imports since taking office, with no announced reductions or suspensions as of late 2025. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any near-term signals suggesting a shift in this posture, despite ongoing trade tensions and periodic diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing.

Trump's first term established a pattern of tariff announcements tied to specific negotiating moments or trade deal announcements, most notably during phase-one trade agreement discussions in January 2020. However, those reductions came after extended periods of escalation and were paired with concrete Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases and intellectual property. The current environment differs materially: Trump has framed tariffs as a central economic policy tool rather than a negotiating lever, and his administration has signalled intent to expand rather than contract them. Historical precedent suggests definitive tariff reductions require either a formal trade agreement announcement or a significant geopolitical concession, neither of which appears imminent.

Traders should monitor scheduled diplomatic events, particularly any Trump-Xi direct engagement or high-level trade delegation meetings. Treasury and Commerce Department statements will carry weight, though past practice shows Trump typically announces tariff decisions through social media or press conferences rather than through formal channels. Congressional trade votes or World Trade Organisation dispute resolutions could theoretically trigger announcements, though these remain secondary to direct executive action. The May 2026 window provides ample time for negotiation shifts, but current positioning and rhetoric suggest the administration views tariff maintenance as politically and economically advantageous.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.