Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Strait of Hormuz traffic has plunged back to near-standstill levels following renewed Iranian attacks on commercial vessels this week, with only five ships crossing overnight into Thursday and zero outbound tankers recorded [12]. This sharp reversal occurs just days after a tentative rebound tied to a US-Iran memorandum, underscoring the fragility of the current 1% market probability that normalcy—defined as a 7-day moving average of 60+ daily transits—will return before July 31 [2][12].

Historical precedents from April and February 2026 show that even during declared ceasefires, traffic rarely exceeds 10% of peacetime volumes, often hovering around five to seven vessels per day against a normal baseline of 130–140 [3][4][7]. Comparable episodes of “dark” shipping, where vessels deactivate AIS transponders to evade detection, further obscure true volumes but do not satisfy the IMF Portwatch resolution criteria, which requires reported arrivals [2]. The current probability reflects this entrenched pattern: disruptions consistently outlast diplomatic pauses, and recovery to 60+ daily calls has not occurred in any prior conflict window.

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a key dependency in the memorandum that could unlock traffic if enforced [8]. Immediate catalysts include any Iranian announcement regarding safe routes or tolls, plus daily Windward and Kpler transit counts, which have repeatedly fallen below 15 vessels even during “reopening” claims [2][12]. A sustained climb above 30 daily transits would be the first credible signal of recovery, but no such trend has emerged in the last 48 hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.